* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 27 30 32 33 31 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 30 32 33 31 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 24 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 3 7 7 11 14 15 26 39 47 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 37 56 346 244 219 232 220 236 232 231 240 237 234 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 142 139 134 130 128 127 124 120 118 119 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 67 68 67 67 66 62 60 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 9 2 1 3 10 51 53 53 52 30 23 200 MB DIV 126 113 85 63 40 1 10 47 55 57 67 71 43 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 8 18 20 24 LAND (KM) 2261 2184 2107 2041 1975 1885 1806 1736 1613 1430 1196 954 732 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.3 17.7 19.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.4 136.9 137.3 137.7 138.2 138.7 139.2 140.2 141.7 143.6 145.7 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 7 10 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 24 29 29 26 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 3. -4. -9. -13. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##