* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 34 35 35 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 34 35 35 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 9 10 12 13 17 24 37 44 48 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 126 175 184 217 226 230 240 234 227 233 234 232 246 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 137 136 133 133 130 125 121 121 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 67 69 71 70 70 69 68 62 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -10 -15 -11 0 30 37 50 52 21 7 4 200 MB DIV 71 46 23 11 22 34 44 54 68 59 52 36 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 17 14 11 11 LAND (KM) 2103 2041 1980 1941 1903 1817 1710 1557 1334 1064 808 583 410 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.2 15.0 16.1 17.6 19.1 20.4 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.4 137.7 138.0 138.2 138.8 139.7 140.9 142.7 144.9 147.1 149.3 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 9 12 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 29 23 14 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 6. 1. -6. -14. -19. -24. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##