* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 48 54 57 57 56 56 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 48 54 57 57 56 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 37 42 46 50 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 0 5 12 20 23 18 24 21 17 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 3 7 6 9 7 4 4 1 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 266 42 38 37 35 28 43 31 34 24 26 14 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 159 158 157 156 156 156 155 151 147 142 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -51.3 -52.3 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 83 83 80 80 80 81 82 85 84 84 83 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 31 37 42 40 31 23 30 47 46 38 53 50 200 MB DIV 128 134 142 141 134 122 119 92 62 81 71 94 88 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -8 -8 -10 -9 -7 -9 LAND (KM) 1890 1941 1998 2052 2110 2245 2399 2538 2676 2591 2291 1981 1648 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.8 8.3 9.2 10.3 11.8 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.7 119.8 120.8 121.8 123.8 125.9 128.2 130.6 133.2 135.7 138.1 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 13 13 19 47 42 19 15 10 16 39 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 34. 37. 37. 36. 36. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 80% is 6.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##