* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 32 37 46 57 65 71 71 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 32 37 46 57 65 71 71 74 76 78 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 34 38 43 48 53 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 14 16 17 15 16 14 8 6 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 4 3 1 0 4 2 3 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 139 109 50 33 29 17 25 37 20 42 51 83 98 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.0 27.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 157 157 156 156 156 155 153 146 142 134 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 80 78 80 81 83 84 83 81 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 11 12 13 13 15 16 18 16 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 46 43 41 39 39 50 50 46 44 58 67 200 MB DIV 163 162 143 120 120 101 103 75 94 91 88 68 64 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 -6 -6 -9 -5 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1959 2001 2047 2094 2144 2278 2385 2507 2629 2490 2185 1873 1544 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.6 9.4 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.9 120.8 121.7 122.6 124.5 126.5 128.7 131.1 133.6 136.1 138.6 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 20 34 48 37 17 12 9 27 16 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 15. 17. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 17. 26. 37. 45. 51. 51. 54. 56. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##