* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 15 17 19 26 38 47 56 63 57 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -5 1 0 -4 -11 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 225 245 253 249 241 253 241 235 232 231 232 238 240 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 130 128 126 123 119 116 115 113 111 111 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 66 66 66 65 63 61 58 55 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -11 0 2 34 40 40 30 8 -25 -29 -35 200 MB DIV 15 1 19 33 28 36 61 45 58 59 52 10 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 14 15 13 11 10 LAND (KM) 1918 1871 1824 1782 1740 1643 1498 1331 1142 983 878 835 777 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.4 16.4 17.7 19.3 21.0 22.8 24.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.3 138.6 138.9 139.2 139.9 141.0 142.3 143.9 145.5 147.1 148.3 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 8 10 11 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -20. -28. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -22. -29. -37. -45. -51. -54. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##