* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 32 37 42 46 48 50 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 32 37 42 46 48 50 51 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 21 24 22 27 25 22 21 16 12 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 3 4 4 5 5 4 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 67 50 37 32 24 28 27 26 32 32 36 33 18 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 156 156 155 156 158 156 154 150 148 140 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -52.0 -51.4 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 82 83 80 80 84 81 85 85 84 83 82 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 35 33 33 35 41 53 57 46 50 51 64 200 MB DIV 183 171 136 110 105 101 100 92 99 85 93 72 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 -9 -10 -5 -2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 2191 2224 2260 2298 2338 2447 2525 2620 2723 2473 2164 1860 1558 LAT (DEG N) 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.6 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.3 122.0 122.8 123.5 125.2 127.0 129.1 131.5 134.2 136.8 139.3 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 15 33 50 52 31 17 13 9 33 31 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##