* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 29 32 43 49 58 58 60 64 67 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 29 32 43 49 58 58 60 64 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 30 34 39 44 49 55 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 25 21 23 21 16 16 10 6 5 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 0 -2 3 0 -1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 56 48 38 33 25 17 17 15 12 45 97 142 226 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 156 155 155 155 156 155 155 150 145 141 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 80 81 81 82 84 85 83 81 76 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 13 13 15 12 13 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 35 32 40 46 52 62 69 54 52 63 62 200 MB DIV 154 121 99 111 117 124 107 105 78 86 88 72 56 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -8 -10 -8 0 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 2263 2294 2327 2373 2420 2491 2551 2629 2663 2352 2043 1717 1393 LAT (DEG N) 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.4 8.3 9.5 10.8 12.1 13.6 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.6 123.2 124.0 124.7 126.2 127.9 130.0 132.3 134.8 137.3 139.9 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 8 8 10 12 13 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 28 45 55 55 40 22 15 10 13 33 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 6. 6. 9. 6. 6. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 23. 29. 38. 38. 40. 44. 47. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##