* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 15 16 22 33 43 55 57 54 47 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 -4 -9 -11 -12 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 241 244 239 243 226 230 230 231 240 250 254 263 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 129 128 124 122 118 116 116 115 114 116 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 68 67 65 64 63 61 55 51 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -12 -6 12 17 21 32 15 5 -22 -48 -46 -38 200 MB DIV 9 14 15 3 14 34 52 49 44 25 -7 -21 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 16 17 14 13 7 7 LAND (KM) 1786 1733 1682 1637 1593 1473 1319 1131 953 829 756 675 555 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.9 16.9 18.4 19.9 21.4 22.4 22.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.2 139.5 139.9 140.2 140.5 141.4 142.6 144.1 145.7 147.1 148.2 149.4 150.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 9 11 10 9 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -14. -24. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -26. -35. -43. -52. -57. -58. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##