* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 32 42 51 62 68 74 77 78 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 32 42 51 62 68 74 77 78 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 25 28 33 39 45 52 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 25 20 21 14 14 10 8 4 6 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -4 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 50 45 36 26 29 21 31 40 39 82 190 207 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.2 26.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 154 155 155 155 156 155 152 144 138 131 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.5 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 85 82 82 83 83 83 84 85 85 80 78 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 13 14 17 18 20 22 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 37 44 48 53 59 75 80 71 68 75 70 200 MB DIV 118 106 123 124 130 158 115 100 88 110 91 74 50 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -7 -8 -4 0 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 2345 2379 2415 2451 2489 2528 2578 2645 2490 2167 1837 1475 1121 LAT (DEG N) 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 7.2 8.1 9.3 10.6 12.2 13.8 15.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 123.9 124.5 125.2 125.9 127.3 129.1 131.2 133.5 136.0 138.6 141.6 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 9 11 13 14 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 48 56 57 52 46 29 17 14 11 23 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 6. 11. 12. 16. 19. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 22. 31. 42. 48. 54. 57. 58. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##