* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 25 24 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 14 14 23 36 45 56 54 45 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 4 2 -7 -5 -9 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 249 238 229 235 234 214 231 225 236 243 251 250 253 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 129 129 125 122 119 117 116 116 119 119 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 72 68 68 65 64 56 54 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -10 9 19 19 32 38 30 10 -12 -33 -20 -4 200 MB DIV 7 2 6 17 30 39 54 54 24 5 -13 -25 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 12 15 17 11 10 1 6 LAND (KM) 1791 1746 1702 1654 1607 1463 1273 1055 870 758 654 523 341 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.9 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.4 22.0 22.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.4 139.7 140.0 140.4 141.5 143.0 144.8 146.5 147.8 149.1 150.6 152.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 5 6 8 10 11 10 8 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -15. -24. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -32. -41. -50. -54. -55. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##