* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 27 30 33 39 46 52 55 57 58 56 52 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 30 33 39 46 52 55 57 58 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 43 48 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 22 23 26 22 25 19 21 10 6 10 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 3 0 2 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 61 52 46 52 52 44 47 40 34 29 343 291 279 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 154 155 155 157 155 155 149 142 136 128 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 84 83 85 86 85 84 81 78 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 43 48 56 68 74 90 77 69 65 72 56 200 MB DIV 108 123 115 122 132 133 114 91 67 82 74 68 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -9 -14 -11 -5 -6 1 2 LAND (KM) 2360 2404 2448 2486 2517 2565 2621 2677 2377 2064 1736 1416 1102 LAT (DEG N) 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.4 8.4 9.6 11.1 12.7 14.3 15.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.4 125.1 125.8 126.6 128.1 130.0 132.1 134.4 136.8 139.4 142.0 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 53 46 38 22 16 13 12 24 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 32. 35. 37. 38. 36. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##