* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 13 15 26 35 44 50 46 44 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 -4 -4 -8 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 228 221 219 222 211 221 230 232 237 250 251 252 252 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 131 129 126 123 121 122 121 122 123 127 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 69 68 70 69 66 60 57 53 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 3 15 20 17 37 46 27 11 0 3 18 26 200 MB DIV 7 7 11 26 50 63 74 66 28 -3 -15 -24 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 13 15 10 6 0 0 LAND (KM) 1807 1766 1726 1663 1601 1430 1186 913 680 511 326 113 73 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.7 16.9 18.3 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.3 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.2 139.5 140.0 140.5 141.9 143.9 146.2 148.3 150.0 151.9 154.1 156.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 13 10 9 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 9 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -14. -22. -26. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -27. -36. -43. -46. -47. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##