* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 39 50 60 67 75 77 77 74 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 39 50 60 67 75 77 77 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 48 55 61 63 61 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 13 8 10 4 4 3 7 4 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 0 0 3 6 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 17 2 359 14 11 39 64 71 105 150 178 247 255 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.9 26.2 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 156 156 156 149 140 135 128 125 125 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 79 79 81 80 80 79 78 79 75 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 11 14 16 16 19 21 22 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 37 43 45 53 61 61 73 78 85 83 93 200 MB DIV 131 124 127 136 163 128 95 76 92 86 78 42 11 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -6 -13 -11 -3 -1 0 2 4 7 LAND (KM) 2183 2223 2267 2307 2336 2412 2531 2384 2002 1623 1247 915 592 LAT (DEG N) 7.1 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.3 9.3 10.6 11.8 13.2 14.6 16.0 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.1 124.0 125.0 125.9 128.2 131.0 134.0 137.2 140.4 143.6 146.5 149.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 36 49 47 42 23 14 12 22 1 4 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 11. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 14. 25. 35. 42. 50. 52. 52. 49. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##