* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 16 19 29 35 42 47 45 44 45 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -8 -9 -8 SHEAR DIR 190 192 207 206 210 226 228 226 231 241 241 247 248 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 130 129 126 123 122 122 123 122 124 128 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 69 68 67 66 62 57 52 49 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 25 32 28 32 47 51 16 8 4 0 15 58 200 MB DIV 13 18 37 58 59 57 74 55 20 6 -14 -11 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 9 8 13 10 8 0 7 1 LAND (KM) 1803 1752 1702 1627 1553 1348 1085 818 597 402 208 3 167 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 16.0 17.2 18.4 19.5 20.1 20.3 20.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.3 139.7 140.3 140.9 142.6 144.8 147.1 149.1 151.0 153.0 155.2 157.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 8 10 13 12 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 7 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -21. -30. -39. -46. -49. -50. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##