* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 19 22 27 38 45 48 48 44 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 184 203 206 215 220 220 222 224 228 232 234 230 230 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 131 129 124 121 120 120 121 122 123 128 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 70 69 70 66 63 57 53 49 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 32 37 40 47 35 10 5 2 50 79 112 200 MB DIV 40 53 71 66 50 69 79 64 26 11 7 -2 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 5 7 13 13 6 6 8 6 -2 LAND (KM) 1787 1744 1702 1622 1543 1304 1036 817 643 454 253 34 153 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 16.4 17.9 19.3 20.3 20.9 20.8 20.4 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.4 139.7 140.4 141.0 142.9 145.1 147.0 148.7 150.7 152.8 155.3 157.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 9 12 12 11 9 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -10. -18. -26. -30. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -27. -37. -47. -55. -58. -58. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##