* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 45 50 54 56 56 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 45 50 54 56 56 54 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 33 38 43 46 49 51 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 8 10 6 6 7 9 6 7 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -7 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 18 23 46 47 60 162 163 128 131 140 240 240 244 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 156 157 152 142 140 135 130 126 124 125 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.1 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 78 79 79 80 80 80 81 80 77 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 58 67 72 86 92 105 108 120 116 106 102 200 MB DIV 114 119 141 110 119 121 118 142 111 118 64 44 69 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -9 -9 -7 -2 0 0 0 0 7 14 LAND (KM) 2306 2317 2334 2387 2447 2482 2099 1795 1551 1294 1006 757 511 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 17 18 15 12 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 37 32 22 18 15 23 3 8 8 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 29. 27. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##