* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 37 44 58 68 75 76 72 72 70 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 37 44 58 68 75 76 72 72 70 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 50 56 56 53 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 15 14 13 2 4 6 10 15 21 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 0 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 10 55 84 81 89 56 126 180 211 211 213 196 226 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.6 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 155 154 142 135 131 126 123 124 124 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 77 76 77 76 75 75 74 65 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 12 13 15 17 18 19 20 20 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 75 77 84 81 98 122 117 112 105 111 105 200 MB DIV 118 124 110 107 113 102 94 143 76 73 24 28 27 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -6 -6 -12 -1 1 5 5 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 2255 2324 2400 2468 2531 2260 1889 1549 1243 930 612 368 192 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 15 16 16 14 14 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 26 20 14 12 14 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 14. 17. 18. 18. 22. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 19. 33. 43. 50. 51. 47. 47. 45. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##