* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 29 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 24 24 24 24 25 19 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 2 0 4 0 0 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 176 190 185 192 194 212 216 216 212 216 214 193 150 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 134 131 129 127 125 126 128 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 76 75 72 71 68 64 60 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 74 77 86 97 108 141 148 129 137 156 134 200 MB DIV 84 77 69 58 86 94 81 60 21 21 0 9 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 4 6 -2 0 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1726 1646 1565 1454 1342 1096 858 685 565 498 465 457 412 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.7 141.4 142.4 143.4 145.6 147.8 149.7 151.5 153.1 154.3 155.2 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 9 14 11 6 2 0 1 3 8 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -11. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##