* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 48 59 68 73 73 70 68 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 48 59 68 73 73 70 68 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 51 53 51 48 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 18 7 6 8 9 12 18 22 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -1 -2 0 1 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 75 57 69 86 71 58 157 195 200 206 196 212 228 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.4 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 154 151 140 131 127 122 121 123 122 120 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 77 79 80 78 75 74 74 68 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 18 18 19 20 21 23 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 62 71 71 73 76 73 76 96 94 87 90 80 64 200 MB DIV 117 89 127 140 138 95 128 121 89 64 45 33 19 700-850 TADV -1 -8 -8 -6 -9 -3 3 1 6 4 9 4 13 LAND (KM) 2358 2404 2457 2517 2524 2187 1855 1531 1213 919 628 410 287 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.1 10.6 11.2 11.8 13.1 14.6 16.0 17.4 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 127.7 128.9 130.1 131.3 132.6 135.4 138.1 140.8 143.5 146.1 148.8 151.2 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 16 13 12 14 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 23. 34. 43. 48. 48. 45. 43. 39. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##