* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 07/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 14 20 23 27 26 24 23 15 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 3 3 0 3 -2 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 179 186 170 179 196 220 218 216 210 225 207 171 149 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 135 132 130 128 126 125 126 127 128 129 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 77 77 72 71 69 64 60 57 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 81 80 89 93 97 122 147 147 133 135 109 84 200 MB DIV 84 66 45 64 85 69 47 23 3 -12 -5 0 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 1 2 1 5 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1687 1590 1493 1362 1231 972 741 590 516 482 448 368 269 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.4 15.9 15.8 15.4 15.0 15.0 15.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.2 142.1 143.3 144.4 146.7 148.9 150.8 152.4 153.6 154.5 155.3 156.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 12 11 12 10 8 7 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 13 11 9 3 0 0 2 4 10 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -6. -11. -14. -13. -10. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##