* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 48 59 67 69 70 62 58 51 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 48 59 67 69 70 62 58 51 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 51 51 48 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 7 7 8 7 9 12 19 22 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 5 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 69 62 82 80 66 92 161 225 201 211 213 215 209 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 152 148 144 138 132 126 123 122 123 121 118 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 81 82 79 80 78 76 72 66 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 16 18 19 18 19 19 22 20 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 78 74 82 89 98 101 112 106 92 67 57 24 19 200 MB DIV 92 95 115 142 141 137 142 88 76 1 10 21 11 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -7 -9 -8 2 2 3 7 8 8 16 15 LAND (KM) 2432 2513 2552 2389 2227 1895 1601 1311 1009 734 494 367 373 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.6 14.9 16.2 17.7 19.2 20.9 22.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 129.5 131.0 132.5 133.9 135.3 138.1 140.5 142.9 145.4 147.8 150.3 152.9 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 13 15 18 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 10. 13. 10. 11. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 23. 34. 42. 44. 45. 37. 33. 26. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##