* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 46 49 48 44 37 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 46 49 48 44 37 31 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 27 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 10 6 6 6 7 16 22 27 24 26 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 7 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 76 77 80 112 148 168 228 233 230 219 220 226 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 148 140 133 130 127 123 122 123 124 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 78 75 78 77 73 71 65 58 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 20 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 77 83 88 88 86 92 90 84 60 50 20 7 -15 200 MB DIV 133 133 115 120 117 107 75 67 18 35 -4 6 18 700-850 TADV -9 -14 -12 -3 3 0 0 3 12 16 15 16 12 LAND (KM) 2543 2371 2199 2013 1827 1512 1219 970 754 567 455 414 456 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 14 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 24. 23. 19. 12. 6. 1. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##