* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 45 49 50 47 40 31 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 45 49 50 47 40 31 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 39 39 36 32 28 24 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 7 7 6 11 20 28 32 40 41 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -1 -2 0 3 1 6 1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 51 48 73 135 167 219 221 222 220 219 217 219 233 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 136 134 132 128 126 126 128 126 124 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 83 84 80 76 70 61 54 53 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 13 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 71 63 57 58 72 75 83 61 57 40 28 3 -6 200 MB DIV 125 106 89 93 79 69 71 15 15 12 23 0 8 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -3 -1 0 -2 3 3 10 10 12 12 12 LAND (KM) 2190 2039 1889 1739 1590 1280 1002 718 444 258 188 210 330 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 20. 17. 10. 1. -8. -13. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##