* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 53 61 66 73 77 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 46 53 61 66 73 77 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 39 45 52 59 68 77 86 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 17 16 9 8 6 7 6 2 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 96 77 75 87 94 104 55 29 46 59 75 349 269 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 149 147 146 145 144 145 146 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 67 64 62 60 61 63 62 64 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 90 107 119 125 123 124 124 137 137 132 121 101 93 200 MB DIV 82 41 33 43 51 48 36 36 36 16 14 33 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1709 1697 1687 1670 1650 1619 1627 1654 1710 1761 1826 1916 2015 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.6 12.4 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 166.4 166.7 167.0 167.4 167.7 168.3 169.0 169.8 170.7 171.7 173.1 174.8 176.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 33 32 32 32 37 44 50 42 37 54 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 15. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 36. 41. 48. 52. 52. 50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##