* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 44 44 41 34 26 19 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 44 44 41 34 26 19 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 29 26 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 7 16 16 17 21 29 38 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 -2 -3 4 1 5 3 4 8 7 2 SHEAR DIR 51 46 106 149 207 233 239 223 230 228 225 220 238 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 133 130 127 126 126 126 124 123 123 124 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 80 82 82 79 77 74 70 65 60 59 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 70 91 88 85 72 46 17 -2 -18 -25 -27 200 MB DIV 106 91 85 86 79 70 35 14 13 22 10 12 8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 4 9 7 10 5 10 1 LAND (KM) 2018 1831 1645 1481 1318 1023 770 566 422 295 209 215 204 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 14 12 11 10 10 13 12 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 11. 4. -4. -11. -15. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##