* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 43 53 60 67 72 76 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 43 53 60 67 72 76 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 46 55 65 76 86 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 18 16 13 11 8 9 11 9 5 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -2 0 1 3 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 75 72 78 89 91 77 59 45 60 66 58 40 4 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 149 148 146 146 147 149 149 150 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 64 63 64 63 67 67 67 67 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 16 16 16 16 15 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 100 110 115 120 116 112 117 119 123 116 112 102 100 200 MB DIV 48 33 33 37 26 39 24 45 7 25 27 62 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1735 1734 1725 1720 1718 1731 1782 1862 1928 2003 2070 2158 2285 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.6 168.0 168.4 168.7 169.5 170.4 171.3 172.2 173.5 174.9 176.5 178.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 30 31 33 43 53 53 50 47 41 36 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 28. 35. 42. 47. 51. 53. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##