* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 07/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 46 46 41 33 27 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 46 46 41 33 27 21 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 34 32 29 26 23 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 2 2 6 14 18 22 19 21 25 36 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -4 0 2 0 5 2 6 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 37 86 122 232 240 235 230 222 225 221 228 233 240 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 131 130 126 126 127 124 124 124 128 127 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 81 79 75 71 64 59 56 54 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 17 18 17 16 12 11 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 60 77 100 94 95 90 75 53 20 16 -3 0 -19 200 MB DIV 106 99 104 92 67 67 2 10 5 16 4 12 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -3 -2 -1 2 6 7 10 7 9 6 5 LAND (KM) 1861 1680 1499 1338 1178 899 646 442 306 205 144 114 226 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 4 4 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -6. -9. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 11. 3. -3. -9. -9. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 07/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##