* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 51 61 69 77 83 86 89 91 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 51 61 69 77 83 86 89 91 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 45 52 61 73 84 92 97 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 14 11 9 13 9 8 9 3 4 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 78 82 89 87 86 76 75 69 56 123 91 218 313 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 149 148 147 146 146 147 149 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 65 64 64 65 67 68 67 69 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 16 18 18 18 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 99 101 104 104 98 103 105 108 102 97 90 98 106 200 MB DIV 43 33 33 22 22 41 47 0 20 17 44 53 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1727 1717 1700 1694 1690 1735 1803 1891 1972 2059 2157 2276 2419 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.5 167.9 168.3 168.7 169.7 170.7 171.7 172.9 174.4 176.1 177.9 179.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 30 33 46 54 52 49 43 35 36 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 31. 39. 47. 53. 56. 59. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##