* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 40 38 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 40 38 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 22 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 6 8 16 20 22 29 34 37 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 0 -1 4 5 3 1 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 161 225 224 225 215 234 228 229 212 225 232 254 262 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 126 123 121 124 125 123 121 122 123 124 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 76 74 68 65 61 54 53 54 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 15 14 14 11 9 7 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 60 75 74 78 75 46 41 19 3 -12 -35 -36 -27 200 MB DIV 101 92 80 64 66 25 4 -12 6 11 23 2 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 1 1 8 5 11 3 10 1 5 LAND (KM) 1695 1538 1382 1243 1106 880 652 457 357 320 310 291 370 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 11 12 12 12 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 1. -7. -15. -23. -25. -24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##