* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 50 60 65 68 68 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 50 60 65 68 68 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 52 62 68 70 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 10 7 10 10 9 5 3 1 4 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 85 88 82 69 53 61 65 71 355 202 246 310 319 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 147 146 145 146 148 148 148 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 64 65 67 66 65 65 66 68 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 16 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 100 100 98 93 92 94 106 109 99 95 87 91 82 200 MB DIV 41 28 13 -4 -3 16 36 13 48 32 63 49 39 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1703 1683 1660 1657 1656 1695 1763 1827 1901 2008 2148 2333 3969 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.4 167.7 168.2 168.6 169.5 170.5 171.5 173.1 175.0 177.3 179.8 182.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 7 9 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 29 32 44 56 54 44 47 50 58 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 16. 15. 11. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 25. 35. 40. 43. 43. 43. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##