* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 37 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 37 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 11 14 20 17 15 20 26 30 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 3 0 6 1 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 207 231 216 213 220 221 226 231 209 224 235 247 252 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 122 121 121 123 124 123 121 122 126 128 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 73 71 69 69 66 59 57 58 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 14 12 9 7 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 56 62 67 63 64 43 27 2 -3 -16 -6 -12 -12 200 MB DIV 85 83 63 62 59 7 17 5 18 4 11 9 -1 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 3 2 8 10 8 2 3 -2 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 1544 1399 1256 1138 1022 816 640 491 376 283 225 167 190 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.8 143.0 144.0 145.1 147.0 148.8 150.7 152.9 154.9 156.8 158.7 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 2. -4. -11. -18. -23. -21. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##