* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 28 35 44 51 52 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 28 35 44 51 52 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 41 43 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 2 3 4 4 3 3 5 10 13 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 113 108 64 54 62 104 112 278 261 276 286 307 297 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 148 146 145 145 146 147 149 148 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 61 60 61 63 60 60 61 65 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 16 16 17 16 16 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 113 103 91 81 83 100 114 106 90 83 85 85 77 200 MB DIV 48 16 -18 -15 -5 26 22 30 29 36 39 53 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 -3 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1492 1491 1474 1486 1499 1556 1647 1737 1868 2045 2293 3958 3719 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 165.7 166.2 166.6 167.2 167.7 169.0 170.4 172.0 174.1 176.7 179.7 183.1 186.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 12 14 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 28 29 36 45 39 45 51 54 61 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 3. 10. 19. 26. 27. 28. 30. 32. 33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##