* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 13 15 15 21 21 23 28 39 45 36 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 5 3 3 2 2 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 251 233 225 228 229 224 226 214 222 223 233 247 271 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 120 119 120 122 123 122 122 124 122 119 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 75 72 69 69 64 59 54 51 50 50 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 11 9 6 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 57 58 49 28 5 -5 -12 -16 -34 -38 -49 200 MB DIV 81 70 56 49 25 -5 17 15 12 21 10 11 14 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 2 3 10 3 7 -1 4 7 12 13 LAND (KM) 1428 1286 1149 1039 932 732 561 447 339 317 377 518 711 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.7 22.0 22.8 23.3 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.7 143.9 144.9 145.9 147.9 150.1 152.1 154.1 156.5 159.2 161.6 164.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 11 12 11 10 11 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -12. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -6. -12. -20. -28. -34. -37. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##