* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 32 39 47 48 50 51 53 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 32 39 47 48 50 51 53 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 39 40 40 39 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 5 7 5 2 8 9 14 17 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -6 -2 -4 -4 -2 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 87 68 54 54 76 139 145 263 284 279 286 289 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 147 147 146 146 145 146 147 146 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 61 62 66 64 62 61 62 62 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 14 15 16 16 15 16 16 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 105 89 78 81 92 108 103 97 93 88 91 89 78 200 MB DIV 22 -3 1 3 12 33 20 19 19 23 13 47 44 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 1 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1476 1472 1454 1467 1483 1539 1590 1667 1783 1964 2210 4052 3775 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 165.6 165.9 166.2 166.7 167.1 168.2 169.5 171.3 173.5 176.2 179.2 182.4 185.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 6 8 11 13 14 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 29 28 30 40 38 33 43 47 59 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 22. 23. 25. 26. 28. 34. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##