* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042015 07/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 17 21 20 26 29 34 48 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 4 7 2 8 5 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 251 243 231 224 226 228 219 223 230 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 122 122 123 124 124 123 122 126 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 72 68 66 62 58 55 53 54 55 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 14 11 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 84 85 61 48 33 13 4 -8 -1 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 68 49 20 -2 9 0 12 9 15 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 4 5 9 6 8 3 3 6 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1239 1103 971 865 764 591 427 311 249 244 407 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.2 25.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.3 144.5 145.6 146.5 147.5 149.3 151.5 153.6 155.8 158.3 161.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -10. -18. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -20. -27. -34. -39. -41. -40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 FOUR 07/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##