* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 37 38 36 36 35 37 39 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 37 38 36 36 35 37 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 35 34 33 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 7 6 3 5 9 12 14 17 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 76 62 57 68 88 196 233 267 278 284 286 286 259 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 146 145 144 145 145 146 145 144 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 60 63 62 59 57 56 59 59 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 15 15 15 15 13 13 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 91 80 84 91 101 109 99 87 69 73 67 54 36 200 MB DIV -12 -9 -10 -3 26 29 10 20 0 4 38 26 17 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 0 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1494 1487 1481 1493 1507 1555 1620 1712 1848 2025 4304 4121 3842 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.2 17.2 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 166.6 167.0 167.4 167.9 168.4 169.6 171.1 173.0 175.2 177.6 180.3 183.1 186.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 12 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 31 34 37 38 28 26 41 53 52 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 12. 14. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##