* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 41 42 43 42 42 44 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 41 42 43 42 42 44 43 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 36 37 36 35 35 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 4 2 5 11 14 17 21 18 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 60 47 57 92 132 215 243 262 277 286 266 263 256 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 146 145 144 144 145 145 145 144 145 146 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 58 60 60 57 57 55 58 62 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 15 15 13 13 12 12 12 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 90 89 94 104 111 109 92 80 69 64 63 48 25 200 MB DIV -13 -17 -6 21 31 17 20 3 7 -1 33 38 37 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 4 3 6 3 LAND (KM) 1460 1467 1476 1503 1532 1604 1689 1817 1969 2158 4187 4029 3774 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 167.2 167.7 168.2 168.8 169.4 170.8 172.4 174.4 176.6 179.0 181.6 184.1 186.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 41 39 37 35 35 36 58 45 54 54 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. 19. 18. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##