* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922015 07/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 6 12 9 12 17 23 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -2 0 4 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 118 124 133 140 137 133 153 180 186 218 233 243 236 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 137 137 134 133 133 135 138 139 133 128 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 73 71 68 63 59 59 59 57 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 103 104 107 110 105 82 78 54 40 10 19 8 17 200 MB DIV 92 79 74 64 43 -4 -1 2 29 30 13 8 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 2 4 3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 903 863 824 761 700 507 330 299 343 307 361 495 654 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.0 14.4 16.0 17.4 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 151.5 151.9 152.3 152.8 153.3 154.8 156.3 158.1 159.8 161.5 163.0 164.6 166.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 8 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 18 10 6 10 19 17 18 22 30 17 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922015 INVEST 07/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922015 INVEST 07/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##