* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 32 30 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 21 20 25 29 34 41 40 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 5 -1 7 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 241 229 221 218 219 208 217 218 224 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.1 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 122 123 123 123 123 126 125 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 65 63 59 55 55 56 57 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 13 9 6 5 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 40 29 24 21 14 3 -10 0 -11 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 43 19 8 20 4 15 -4 16 13 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 10 11 7 10 5 5 7 13 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1061 942 828 722 629 465 326 261 233 374 585 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.3 24.9 25.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.7 145.8 146.9 148.0 149.1 151.5 153.9 156.5 159.2 161.8 164.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -25. -35. -43. -50. -50. -53. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##