* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 37 37 37 35 37 40 43 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 37 37 37 35 37 40 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 31 30 30 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 3 5 13 17 20 20 22 23 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 28 76 217 226 246 255 271 272 275 256 260 265 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 143 143 144 145 145 145 144 145 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 59 58 56 55 57 61 64 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 12 13 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 104 102 102 108 113 100 89 75 67 65 62 42 30 200 MB DIV -15 -8 13 12 24 0 9 -1 10 44 37 33 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1454 1472 1493 1532 1573 1658 1783 1936 2113 4216 4055 3877 3626 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.6 169.2 169.9 170.6 172.2 174.1 176.2 178.4 181.0 183.4 186.0 188.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 41 37 33 35 36 32 58 44 55 55 54 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 12. 12. 10. 12. 15. 18. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##