* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 46 48 48 48 50 50 53 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 46 48 48 48 50 50 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 45 48 48 48 48 47 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 4 5 10 13 18 19 17 21 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -6 -5 -6 -4 -1 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 63 73 133 166 197 238 250 262 269 248 249 236 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 144 144 144 145 145 145 144 144 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 61 62 58 58 56 59 63 65 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 14 15 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 102 105 108 115 114 100 87 76 64 66 56 44 30 200 MB DIV 0 14 14 22 12 25 15 28 15 56 61 52 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1509 1534 1560 1601 1644 1741 1868 2035 2229 4129 3967 3710 3444 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 168.7 169.3 169.9 170.6 171.3 173.1 175.1 177.4 179.8 182.4 185.0 187.4 189.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 35 35 36 33 46 51 46 54 54 55 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 20. 20. 23. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##