* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922015 07/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 41 43 43 42 45 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 41 43 43 42 45 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 32 34 36 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 7 5 8 4 6 2 3 6 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 -4 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 100 101 105 86 84 147 168 169 227 265 359 58 18 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 139 138 137 135 136 138 142 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 69 67 65 61 59 55 55 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 73 73 74 68 56 42 30 25 20 18 29 34 27 200 MB DIV 45 39 44 36 -4 -2 10 10 -7 -17 -21 1 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 -2 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 876 835 797 740 689 584 586 686 801 925 1123 1332 1578 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.9 14.8 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 153.4 154.0 154.5 155.2 155.8 157.3 159.1 161.0 163.0 165.2 167.7 170.3 172.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 8 8 10 9 10 10 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 8 8 10 32 12 9 19 41 25 44 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. 20. 24. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922015 INVEST 07/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922015 INVEST 07/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##