* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 29 27 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 15 18 22 22 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 3 3 6 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 222 215 203 196 208 218 219 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 121 122 121 122 122 122 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 58 55 54 55 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 17 15 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 25 14 4 -6 -9 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 19 30 27 18 6 11 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 18 13 11 12 3 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 902 806 722 640 573 473 309 225 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.2 148.2 149.3 150.3 152.2 154.6 156.8 158.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -11. -22. -31. -39. -45. -49. -53. -55. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/09/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##