* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 44 45 45 48 47 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 44 45 45 48 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 43 42 42 41 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 4 6 9 16 19 20 22 19 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6 -5 0 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 94 116 135 193 221 253 266 283 265 255 243 253 267 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 144 144 145 145 146 145 144 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 63 60 59 58 58 60 65 66 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 14 15 13 15 15 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 103 109 114 110 105 97 81 69 59 55 43 24 12 200 MB DIV 20 19 20 9 13 18 9 22 27 45 53 26 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 0 -3 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 1523 1556 1592 1628 1667 1776 1921 2103 4226 4055 3793 3526 3246 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.8 13.8 14.9 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 168.9 169.5 170.1 170.8 171.6 173.5 175.8 178.3 181.1 183.8 186.5 189.0 191.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 15 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 37 37 36 35 55 44 54 54 53 59 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 15. 15. 18. 17. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##