* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922015 07/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 47 47 48 51 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 47 47 48 51 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 38 40 42 46 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 7 8 5 5 5 3 1 8 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 82 70 58 64 89 141 103 165 186 262 37 55 73 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 140 137 136 137 140 144 145 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 69 67 66 63 61 55 54 52 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 73 72 60 59 54 35 25 25 15 25 33 40 32 200 MB DIV 44 43 25 1 4 19 16 14 -13 -26 -3 2 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -1 1 LAND (KM) 892 850 812 750 697 640 687 827 939 1124 1340 1579 1838 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.7 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 154.1 154.7 155.2 155.9 156.6 158.2 160.1 162.1 164.2 166.6 169.3 172.0 174.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 11 10 13 25 9 12 32 35 33 41 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 22. 22. 23. 26. 30. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##