* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 19 21 23 27 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 213 211 204 201 219 223 229 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 119 120 120 121 121 124 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 56 54 55 58 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 12 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 -1 -4 -13 -31 -19 -20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 19 16 0 9 5 19 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 8 7 10 9 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 839 771 715 656 606 483 367 275 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.9 148.7 149.7 150.6 152.7 154.8 157.0 159.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -14. -19. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -32. -39. -46. -51. -55. -57. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##