* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972015 07/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 39 52 64 75 80 81 82 83 84 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 39 52 64 75 80 81 82 83 84 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 44 55 64 70 73 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 13 9 10 8 3 4 8 9 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 8 3 0 -6 -6 -7 -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 52 39 50 47 54 31 49 100 141 146 146 138 125 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 156 154 152 151 146 144 142 140 134 128 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 75 74 74 73 71 67 62 58 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 35 51 55 66 84 103 98 95 90 94 94 200 MB DIV 132 110 98 109 117 91 113 131 117 85 73 46 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 -3 -2 0 1 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1667 1683 1702 1713 1726 1757 1771 1786 1817 1875 1920 1988 2069 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.4 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.7 121.8 123.0 124.3 125.7 127.2 128.5 129.7 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 52 45 37 29 22 16 14 14 33 24 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 19. 32. 44. 55. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972015 INVEST 07/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##