* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912015 07/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 50 52 54 54 54 54 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 47 50 52 54 54 54 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 36 40 42 43 44 45 46 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 7 8 8 13 16 13 19 21 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -6 -7 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 117 110 209 219 217 250 261 261 223 229 205 238 226 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 145 146 146 147 146 145 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 61 60 63 59 60 63 63 64 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 16 17 18 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 110 111 110 109 107 105 82 75 75 63 55 42 31 200 MB DIV 12 22 21 32 35 9 35 28 79 85 64 19 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -1 2 5 6 8 LAND (KM) 1623 1668 1714 1754 1797 1914 2058 2250 4090 3933 3762 3513 3283 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 170.3 171.0 171.6 172.3 173.1 175.0 177.2 179.7 182.4 184.9 187.2 189.5 191.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 11 13 13 14 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 39 37 37 55 56 52 57 58 55 61 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##