* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922015 07/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 47 51 54 58 60 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 47 51 54 58 60 61 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 46 49 53 59 66 72 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 11 9 5 8 5 2 12 16 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 71 54 54 84 107 97 104 103 53 18 39 58 63 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 140 139 137 136 139 144 147 146 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 67 66 66 62 59 53 54 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 10 9 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 53 48 47 38 21 25 23 21 33 37 25 18 200 MB DIV 32 12 -4 -3 2 9 4 -22 -20 -45 -14 -29 -22 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 907 846 789 727 674 667 737 913 1068 1305 1559 1829 2109 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.8 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 154.5 155.1 155.7 156.4 157.1 158.9 160.8 163.0 165.3 168.1 171.0 173.8 176.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 11 12 18 16 9 17 40 39 40 41 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. 31. 34. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##