* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELA EP042015 07/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 24 26 26 30 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 3 2 3 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 209 204 205 218 226 227 234 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 120 121 121 121 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 52 52 53 55 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 11 10 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -6 -8 -14 -23 -19 -12 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 16 -2 6 4 8 23 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 8 7 0 0 -5 -3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 715 664 595 540 411 324 225 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.7 149.6 150.7 151.7 153.8 155.9 158.1 160.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -16. -21. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -32. -40. -45. -51. -56. -59. -59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042015 ELA 07/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##